Why Reform might win...

After a short break and a thoroughly relaxing summer, it’s time for a new season of PRESC articles. To kick off the term, we’re looking at one of the hottest topics in British politics right now: why the Reform Party are topping the polls, and why the bookmakers have Nigel Farage down as the favourite to be the next Prime Minister. As always, we’ll unpack this through the PRESC lens: Politics, Religion, Economics, Society, and Culture, with the aim of staying nuanced, sharp, and relevant.

Politics first. Reform’s rise has plenty of drivers. After 14 years of Conservative government, much of the electorate is exhausted. Keir Starmer’s Labour government hasn’t yet made a meaningful impact in its first 14 months, and populism is on the rise globally with politics shifting back towards what many would call the right. But here’s the twist: a closer look at Reform’s platform shows a mix of left and right-wing policies. Their flagship announcements are undeniably right leaning, but they’ve also tapped into a broader appeal by blending nationalist rhetoric with both genuine and perceived working-class frustrations. In doing so, they’ve positioned themselves as the anti-establishment alternative.

Religion adds another layer. It’s controversial, but it can’t be ignored. In some parts of the UK, there is a sentiment that immigration in particular Muslim immigration should be halted. This ties directly into wider debates around identity, values, and the role of religion in a modern, pluralist Britain. For Reform, playing to these concerns allows them to connect with voters who feel unsettled by the cultural and demographic shifts of recent decades. Whether one agrees with this perspective or not, the sense of insecurity about national identity is a powerful emotional driver. Reform has skilfully channelled this. Their messaging frames the issue not just as one of numbers, but of preserving traditions, heritage, and social cohesion.

And then there’s the economy, arguably the biggest factor. As explored in a previous article (https://www.presctutoring.com/blog/why-the-economy-matters/), economic discontent is at the heart of Reform’s momentum. The cost-of-living crisis continues to squeeze households, with energy bills, food prices, and mortgage costs leaving families feeling worse off year after year. Reform’s populist tax cutting proposals, though unfunded and untested, land well because they speak directly to that frustration, promising immediate relief in people’s pockets. At the same time, disillusionment runs deep in deindustrialised areas where promises of levelling up have fallen flat. Rachel Reeves’ struggles to get a grip on the economy she inherited from the Conservatives have only amplified this sense of drift. In short, Reform is benefiting from a widespread feeling that neither of the two main parties has a convincing plan for growth or for easing financial pressures. Voters are willing to take a chance on something different.

Society is equally important. British society is more fragmented than it has been in decades, with sharp divides between urban and rural areas, between younger and older voters, and between graduates and non-graduates. Reform’s messaging has resonated particularly strongly among groups who feel left behind by rapid social and technological change. For example, older working-class voters in former industrial areas often feel that their values and ways of life are being eroded. Reform has positioned itself as the defender of common sense against what it frames as a politically correct or woke agenda. This cultural positioning, even more than specific policies, has allowed them to cultivate a strong us versus them narrative that mobilises loyal supporters. Culture ties everything together. At its heart, Reform’s success is cultural as much as political. The party taps into nostalgia for a Britain that feels more stable, more secure, and more cohesive, whether that version of Britain truly existed or not. Nigel Farage has been particularly effective at using cultural symbols, from patriotism and the Union Jack to football and pub culture, as shorthand for authenticity and belonging. In a political environment where many feel alienated from Westminster’s language of policy and process, these cultural touchstones create an emotional bond with voters. Culture, more than policy detail, may explain why Reform is surging in the polls.

So, in light of a non-existent Conservative Party, an already fractured Labour government and an irrelevant Liberal Democrat offering, Farage could be forgiven for measuring the drapes in 10 Downing Street…